Class of 2010

Who are the new MPs we are about to send to Westminster? What are their political beliefs? What backgrounds do they come from? Could they work together in the event of a hung parliament? Although the next parliament will see an exceptionally large number of newcomers, we still know relatively little about the ‘class of 2010’.

To help us answer some of these questions ippr has conducted an online poll of Prospective Parliamentary Candidates from across the different parties. This excluded sitting MPs and included only those who had a serious chance of winning – either in safe seats for their party or in marginal contests.

Our first finding was that if PR is the deal breaker in a hung parliament, both David Cameron and Gordon Brown will find it difficult to persuade their backbenchers to back electoral reform. All of the Conservative PPCs polled supported first past the post, while only 10 per cent of Labour PPCs backed PR or a mixed system as used in Scotland and Wales.

On the PPCs’ ideological positions the survey found that Labour and Lib Dem PPCs have much more in common with each other than either set of candidates do with the Conservatives. This confirms that a coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems would be much easier to hold together politically than an arrangement between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.

Our survey found that:

• Most Labour and Lib Dem PPCs agree that government should redistribute income from the rich to the poor. Only 30 per cent of surveyed Conservative PPCs supported income redistribution and 47 per cent opposed it. Labour PPCs are slightly to the left of Lib Dem PPCs on questions of redistribution and the welfare state: 67 per cent of Labour PPCs against 33 per cent of Lib Dem PPCs agree strongly that government should redistribute income.
• Labour and Lib Dem PPCs are less in favour of tougher sentences for criminal offences than Conservative PPCs, with Lib Dem PPCs being the most liberal.
• 59 per cent of Conservative PPCs disagreed with the statement that too many people’s lives would be damaged by cutting benefits, compared to just 7 per cent of Labour and 17 per cent of Lib Dem PPCs.
• 70 per cent of Conservatives agreed that the welfare state ‘crowds out’ civic endeavour and community self-help, while most Labour and Lib Dem PPCs disagreed.
• 91 per cent of Lib Dem PPCs agreed that we have been too reliant on the City for growth and should curb its role, compared to 44 per cent of Labour PPCs. Most Conservative PPCs opposed action to reduce the role of the City in the economy.
• Lib Dem PPCs are the least interventionist on foreign policy, with 91 per cent wanting Britain to stop trying to be a major military force in the world, compared to just 27 per cent of Labour and 6 per cent of Tory PPCs.
• 59 per cent of Tory PPCs think the EU is a threat to the UK’s national sovereignty, whereas Labour and Lib Dem PPCs overwhelmingly reject this.
• Whereas all Labour and Lib Dem PPCs agree that climate change is real and man made and requires major social changes, only 53 per cent of Tory PPCs believe this.

Finally, in terms of how the candidates were selected, we found that in most cases the candidates were locally based or had some local roots. There was little evidence of lots of London-based candidates being parachuted into constituencies. What is more noticeable about the selection process is how few people are involved in it: 75 per cent of these PPCs were chosen by fewer than 200 party members and 28 per cent by fewer than 100. The only party to have broken out of those small numbers were the Conservatives – many of whom had been selected in primary contests.

The survey is here and the press release here.

Rick Muir

Back to work?

With the latest figures showing a rise in unemployment – but a fall in the number claiming unemployment benefit – it seems like there is an opportunity to momentarily shift discussion away from the Clegg bounce and leadership debates and towards welfare policy. So far the parties have largely focused on making sure voters know that they will be tough on welfare, but with unemployment at 2.5 million, this is insufficient.

Lots of similarities between Labour and Conservative welfare policies are evident from the manifestos, but also some important differences, in approach as well as policy.

There are similarities in the sound-bites: Labour aims for a ‘swift return to employment’ and the Conservatives want to ‘get Britain working again’. And in the headlines: both main parties are keen to offer more targeted and personalised support, focus attention on job creation and prevent a scarred generation of young people. There are similarities in flagship programmes, namely Labour’s Flexible New Deal and the Conservatives’ single Work Programme. And both parties talk of toughening up the system with proposals on sanctions and benefit cheats.

But there are also significant differences. Labour’s manifesto commitments include an extension to the Young Person’s Guarantee, a better off in work guarantee, a living wage in Whitehall, and rises in the National Minimum Wage. And the narrative of a ‘big society’ that underpins Tory proposals to tackle welfare dependency highlights different roles for the state, welfare to work organisations and individuals.

What of the Liberal Democrats? Well, their manifesto commitments on welfare are noticeably thin. There is a focus on supply-side measures such as job creation and especially green jobs, but proposals to tackle unemployment are mostly absent.

It is clear that many challenges remain around welfare reform. Amongst the most significant is personalising welfare. Emerging findings from ippr’s innovative Now it’s Personal research are highlighting the need for interventions that don’t just isolate employment support and that recognise a wider set of needs such as childcare and transport. Also needed are advisers who have good knowledge of the local environment and in particular good relationships with local employers and training providers. In addition a focus on supporting sustainable job outcomes with more support for people once they are in work to manage the transition as well as a volatile and flexible labour market.

A tougher welfare policy may seem like the right tactic to appeal to voters, but with 2.5 million people currently unemployed and with public sector cuts still to come, this will not be enough. More radical change is needed for the welfare system to be genuinely responsive, personalised and effective.

Dalia Ben-Galim