From Copenhagen to UK marginals

The Prime Minister is the co-chair of a new UN high-level advisory group on climate change finance. To mark the first meeting of the group (known inelegantly by climate wonks as the HLAG) Ed Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, launched a new UK government International Climate Change Action Plan on Wednesday morning.

The HLAG is quite a big deal in the international climate change world, but more domestic concerns probably lie behind Ed Miliband’s Action Plan launch. Polling data comprehensively shows that climate change and environment are not decisive electoral issues. However, recent work by ippr – as yet unpublished – shows that an important minority (17 per cent) of floating voters in marginal constituencies list climate among their top three issues.

Our data suggests these voters are young, liberally inclined and important in the battle for the centre ground of UK politics. So while climate change may not matter electorally at the national level, constituency by constituency it may and Ed Miliband’s launch suggests that Labour is reading the runes on this (it’s important to emphasise that we have presented our poll findings to Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems).

The plan itself is somewhat short on substance, but the nature of the launch and its audience points to a wooing of groups to which the environmentally-inclined floating voters may belong. Sharing Miliband’s platform was President Jagdeo of Guyana – also an HLAG member – who heaped praise on the UK PM and DECC Secretary for their leadership prior to last year’s big climate summit in Copenhagen.

The audience was made up of green and development groups and others that have campaigns on climate change, such as the Women’s Institute. The question of whether Gordon Brown will continue as co-chair of the HLAG should Labour not be returned to government on May 6 is moot; he’s there in an official capacity and so his fate in this case would be in the hands of the new UK government. ippr’s polling data suggests that Ed Miliband’s green and development group-wooing strategy may increase his leader’s chances.

Andrew Pendleton