Northern Ireland and the balance of power

To those who take only a passing interest in Northern Ireland politics recent events will have run true to form. On-going disagreements, mild political hysteria, governmental interventions and a thirteenth hour agreement on the devolution of justice and policing powers all sounds very familiar. Whilst these scenes sparked little outside interest, the increasing likelihood of a hung parliament means that the political goings on in Northern Ireland may take on a far greater significance for all of us over the coming months.

On the one side there is the spectre of one or both of the main Unionist parties forming the makeweight in a Conservative-led coalition and on the other Sinn Fein’s abstentionist MPs. Both could be crucial in determining the shape of the next government.

On the Unionist side, the fact that the two major parties have all but swopped positions in respect of the peace process - the Ulster Unionist Party now appearing the more sceptical, makes everything so much more interesting. The division of votes and ultimately seats will be intriguing, particularly given the emergence of True Ulster Voice, but it is arguably in its wider significance for the UK that there is most interest. In the event of the Conservatives having the largest share of seats in a hung parliament the two Unionist parties will be viable coalition partners. In return for their support the Unionists will demand influence in key policy areas. This could arguably push Europe centre stage and seriously curtail whatever progressive tendencies Mr Cameron harbours, whether on climate change, social reform or the Peace Process itself.

A further twist is added by the presence of Sinn Féin. In the event of a hung parliament the absence of Sinn Féin MPs will have a profound impact on the mathematics of government formation, reducing numbers required for power. Ironically, a spilt Unionist vote may increase the Sinn Féin haul further.

Whatever the actual division of the eighteen available seats, the General Election could see the voters of Northern Ireland holding a disproportionate influence within UK politics. As a consequence we may suddenly all become more interested in events in Northern Ireland.

Phil McCarvill, Visiting Research Fellow, ippr